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What Are the Chances of Being Struck by Lightning, and How to Stay Safe in the Mountains?

If you’re not sure it’s safe to continue your hike in the mountains, it’s better to turn around and go back, warns mountain guide and alpinist Miha Habjan. Meteorologist Andrej Velkavrh adds that even an ordinary thunderstorm is enough to put you at risk of a lightning strike.

Following yesterday’s tragic incident in Tyrol, where lightning struck and killed three experienced local alpinists, weather expert Andrej Velkavrh and mountain guide Miha Habjan joined Igor E. Bergant in the Odmevi studio to discuss weather phenomena and mountain safety.

Summer thunderstorms, including lightning, are expected at this time of year. But have they changed in recent years?

Velkavrh: No. The thunder sounds the same, and they form the same way. There may be more intense storms, but even a regular thunderstorm is enough to get struck by lightning.

Meteorologists can now predict them more accurately, thanks to new knowledge and technical advancements.

Velkavrh: Forecasting has undoubtedly improved, but we still fall a bit short — particularly in predicting exactly where and when storms will form. That’s a challenge meteorology hasn’t fully resolved, so there’s still some uncertainty. However, we can usually predict whether storms are likely on a given day.

In Tyrol, the three victims were very experienced alpinists — one was even a mountain guide — locals familiar with the mountains and the weather. They were likely struck while descending, possibly near a via ferrata cable. Can you briefly go over the key safety guidelines for mountaineers and hikers during a thunderstorm?

Habjan: Every hiker, mountaineer, or climber knows the saying that you should start early in the mountains — and that’s not just a cliché. The reason is precisely to avoid the afternoon thunderstorms that are more common in summer. Preparation is crucial, and that includes carefully checking the weather forecast and assessing the potential for thunderstorms. This determines where we go, what kind of route we choose, and how we approach the day. Once on the trail, we have to adapt to the actual conditions.

What Are the Chances of Being Struck by Lightning, and How to Stay Safe in the Mountains?

But if a storm does catch us — scree slopes are safer than ridges, and the best refuge is a cave, a car, or a mountain hut. But what if we find ourselves near a metal cable during a storm?

Habjan: At that point, the hiker has already made a grave mistake. You must do everything possible to avoid being on mountain ridges or summits during a storm. If you are caught in the mountains with no huts or shelters nearby, remove any metal equipment you’re using, make yourself as small as possible, sit or kneel, hug your legs, dress appropriately (put on a windbreaker), move away from rock walls, and hope for the best.

The unfortunate alpinists in Tyrol reportedly saw the storm approaching from 40 km away. It began while they were still on the summit. How fast can storms move, and how can lightning catch us off guard?

Velkavrh: Usually, we see the rain area — where we can observe rain curtains or identify the storm cell on radar based on the strongest reflectivity. Sometimes, lightning strikes before the storm’s core even arrives — before any rain starts falling. Lightning can be unpredictable.

Does the saying “lightning from a clear sky” really hold any truth?

Velkavrh: Not really. Some conditions must exist for electrification to occur — particles must collide and generate static charge. A lightning strike is essentially a spark between two poles, and a sufficient charge is needed.

What Are the Chances of Being Struck by Lightning, and How to Stay Safe in the Mountains?

So rain isn’t necessary?

Correct.

Today, some people head into the mountains completely unprepared and uninformed, while others are well-equipped and informed. Is there any gear that could protect a mountaineer or hiker from lightning?

Habjan: No, there isn’t. There are only better or worse decisions — made at home and during the trip itself. These choices determine whether we end up exposed to danger. We must do everything to avoid exposure — or, put another way, we must avoid doing anything that increases our risk of exposure.

What are your personal experiences in observing the weather? Can close observation of the weather and nature, along with apps, help us make better decisions?

Habjan: Yes and no. We don’t always have access to information since there’s not always a signal. For instance, a radar image might show precipitation nearby, which can complicate our decision-making. We should approach it more cautiously — if we’re not sure it’s safe to proceed, it’s better to turn back. After all, as the saying goes: “The mountain will still be there.”

Mr. Velkavrh, how do you personally navigate the environment?

Velkavrh: I also use radar images — they’re probably the best tool currently available. But again, they’re not always accessible, as signal coverage in the mountains can be unreliable. I believe it’s better to make the decision earlier. Once things start happening around you, it’s already a bit late. If the forecast says thunderstorms are likely in the afternoon in a particular area, then it’s better not to go at that time of day. Forecasts can be pretty specific — storms in the afternoon only unless there’s a front that might bring storms earlier.

Source: RTVSLO

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